Taking bets on the next 50 years...

I got this brief interview from my brother a couple of weeks ago, and I need to blog about something after a long absence, so here goes. The subject of the interview is Jeremy Rifkin, who claims the titles "economist, philosopher and professor," and more generally, "social critic."

There is no shortage of people making predictions about the coming decades, and I try to pay some attention to these people -- and yes, that includes a near-religious devotion to reading anonymous "Spengler" every week. (sidenote -- Spengler is expanding his reach, writing an essay in next month's First Things titled "Christian, Muslim, Jew.")

Rifkin is certainly of a different stripe than Spengler. He addresses three general issues here, from a futurist's perspective: 1) Urban life, 2) The transformation of work, and 3) Europe.

1) Rifkin states,

"For the first time in history, a majority of human beings will be living in vast urban areas, many in megacities and suburban extensions with populations of 10 million or more, according to the United Nations."

This is certainly true. Megacities will get bigger and bigger, but many (including Joel Kotkin) see the most rapid relative growth occuring in smaller and mid-sized cities, with populations between 25,000 and 800,000. If you live in one of these cities in the next fifty years, get ready for a growth spurt, according to Kotkin. (For a couple of sobering, dystopian commentaries on the explosive growth of megacities, especially in the developing world, see John Robb's "The Coming Urban Terror," from last month's City Journal and a 1994 Robert Kaplan essay in the Atlantic, "The Coming Anarchy"). Rifkin also states:

"It’s no accident that as we celebrate urbanization of the world, we are quickly approaching another historic watershed: the disappearance of the wild."

This is a popular view, but I'm not sure it's based in reality. Much of continental Europe is returning to wilderness, where wolves sometimes outnumber humans. Central Africa is becoming increasingly wild, as wars and horrific natural conditions drive thousands to coastal cities. It's maybe more accurate to say that the wilderness around these new megacities, like Lagos, Nigeria, is being completely and irrevocably destroyed.

2) Rifkin has faith in technology to give the world a European-like 30 hour work week. In fact, Europe should be the model for the U.S. , according to Rifkin. Rifkin is an economist. He should know the nations of Europe are struggling and striving to keep up with (especially) U.S. and East Asian economic growth. They don't impose absurd mandatory 35 hour (maximum) work weeks either, a la our neighbors in France -- but Sarko might change this -- GO SARKO, GO).

3) Ok, I delved into Europe on number 2, and will again here. Again, Rifkin likes the European model. What he doesn't mention are plummeting birthrates, aging populations, and bloated bureacracies that make D.C. look like a well-oiled machine. Rifkin also makes this nebulous statement:

"The dream that’s emerging is the first attempt, as feeble as it is, to create something akin to global consciousness."

"The dream" he's talking about is the European Union, the same one that offered French and Dutch voters a 300-page constitution, only to have it soundly rejected.

Finally, Rifkin comments on Islam in Europe:

"I think the dream will succeed or fail based on the ability of Europe to integrate Islam. Europe’s dream is to be a global public square, with unity in diversity, where people of the world can live together with a common dream of inclusivity, sustainable development, human rights and building peace. However, to accomplish this, Europe must effectively integrate North Africa and the Middle East, and especially Islam. If it fails, the world is going to take a step back, and we may not achieve that kind of global consciousness. Then the question is who else can develop this dream, if it isn’t Europe?"

Rifkin is living in a cocoon of wishful thinking (or maybe I'm just cranky tonight, who knows).

Europe is facing an existential crisis, and will continue to do so for the next 50 years - it would face the crisis with or without radical strains of Islam within its borders.

And "integrate North Africa and the Middle East"? Europe? Really?

If this is your benchmark for success, Mr. Rifkin, I can predict the future for you: the world is most definitely going to "take a step back" in the next 50 years. Read the Kaplan article for the goods.

BC